Glimpse Blog
Insights on prediction markets, Bitcoin event contracts, and forecasting.
How the Bitcoin Power Law and Prediction Markets Work Together
The Bitcoin power law shows Bitcoin's long-run trend. A prediction market gives the short-term forecast by blending every trader's model, weighted by how much each trader bets.
Prediction Market Mechanism Design: Why the LS-LMSR Is the Best Market Maker for Forecasting
Prediction markets exist to forecast and to hedge. Among the four main mechanism designs, the liquidity-sensitive logarithmic market scoring rule (LS-LMSR) is the only one that rewards honest trading, always quotes a price, caps the operator's loss at a small subsidy and deepens with volume.
Bitcoin's Hiding Energy Market - Hashrate
Bitcoin has two connected markets: the visible market trades bitcoin, and the underlying market produces it. Hashrate measures that computing power, but a rising hashrate does not automatically mean every miner is profitable.
Bitcoin was just the beginning: Glimpse adds Ethereum, Solana and Gold
Glimpse has expanded beyond Bitcoin with forecasting markets for Ethereum, Solana and Gold. Forecast price ranges, earn Bitcoin for accuracy, and contribute to a live market-generated signal.
The Complete Guide to Bitcoin Market Sentiment
Bitcoin market sentiment is the overall mood and expectations of investors towards Bitcoin. It reflects whether market participants are optimistic, fearful or uncertain, helping explain why Bitcoin moves and how expectations change before those moves appear in price.
Bitcoin Prediction Markets: The Complete Guide
A Bitcoin prediction market is a marketplace where participants collectively forecast Bitcoin's future price by trading on probabilities rather than relying on individual opinions.
How to Predict Bitcoin's Price (Without a Crystal Ball)
Nobody can predict Bitcoin's future price with certainty. The most effective way to forecast Bitcoin is to combine macroeconomic analysis, market structure, on-chain data and investor sentiment while thinking in probabilities rather than fixed price targets.
More resources
New to the basics? Explore our Learn guides on prediction markets, event contracts, and Bitcoin Lightning deposits, or read the whitepaper.