What are event contracts?
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Definition
An event contract is a contract whose value is tied to the outcome of a future event. Each contract asks a yes-or-no question about a verifiable outcome — for example, whether an asset price finishes above a threshold by a certain date. If you correctly predict the outcome, the contract pays out a fixed amount; if not, you lose the amount you staked.
How prices relate to probabilities
Because an event contract pays a fixed amount when the event happens, its trading price reflects the market's estimate of the probability of that event. A contract trading at 30% of its payout implies the market collectively believes there is about a 30% chance the event occurs. This is what makes prediction markets useful forecasting tools: prices are probabilities.
Event contracts on Glimpse
Event contracts on Glimpse are denominated in Bitcoin. You stake Bitcoin to take a position, and correct predictions receive a guaranteed fixed odds payout in Bitcoin. Deposits and withdrawals settle instantly over the Bitcoin Lightning Network, so you can enter and exit the market without traditional banking delays.
Are event contracts securities?
No. Event contracts offered on Glimpse are digital asset derivatives contracts, not securities or investment products. Trading involves risk: you risk losing up to the entire amount of the Bitcoin invested. See the Risk Disclosure for details.
Learn more
Read the Glimpse whitepaper on Bitcoin prediction markets, browse the FAQ, or explore trading education on the Glimpse Wiki.